Friday, August 14, 2009

League thoughts

I kept trying to post an excel copy of my league table like you had, but my complete lack of computer knowledge left me floundering. Much like your league table will do to you by the end of the season. Just joking. But I must make a few comments on how I chose my league table, and then on yours. I will also post my cup winners at the end.

I decided I must stick with my initial thoughts that Chelsea will win the league that were first brought up on the walk through the woods. I realize that this will horrify you but let me explain my thoughts. I don't believe that Ancelotti is the new Mourinho, and honestly think he will struggle this season to learn the English game. It is the strength of the Chelsea side on paper that makes me think they will pull through, although just barely. And I still think that Abramovich will give the money for one marquee player to come in by the end of the transfer window. Someone like Aguero or Ribery who will make them that much more deadly. And Zhirkov will fill the gap on the left and create a bit of competition for the position, which has been sorely lacking with Joe Cole always injured leaving Malouda to keep playing despite being more of a Sunderland level player. (ooohh, cheeky!)

Every other side in the top four has lost a major player or two, and they will all be significantly weaker this season. Man City will push them to the brink (and if something major happens to any of the top teams will take a top four spot), but they will need at least one more season to get in to the Champions league and mold themselves into a team. Liverpool lost Alonso and Aquilani will be ok, but not the same level and his ankle struggle to stay healthy with the physicality of the English game. They are too dependent upon Torres and Gerrard staying fit, and the rest of the team don't look like they can grind out results. They still have yet to buy a decent back up for Torres, and although they will do well they will not be able to pull off the league win that many pundits are expecting. Chelsea will nip them to it in the final weeks.

Man U will be significantly weaker without Ronaldo or Tevez, but still have enough quality and money to stay in the top three and compete for the league. Their mid field is still by far the weakest part of the team, and it hasn't been strengthened enough to make up for the losses. And of course Owen will not make up for Ronaldo's goals up front.

Arsenal will have a great season starting out, but will fade in the final third. Arsene is not making sounds like he feels he needs to replace Abedeyor or Toure, which is a bad sign. They need more depth in both positions and a middle field enforcer. If Arsene does turn around and buy a few players they could pull off an upset, but at this point he looks like his pride will be his downfall still.

Man City will have moments of brilliance, but it seems Mark Hughes is collecting superstars like a five year old collects pokemon cards. The coolest ones and most hard to find, but he is failing to really piece them all into a team. They will compete but still need a few more major signings over next summer to get into the top four.

Tottenham will be much better this season, but won't be able to compete with Everton. Aston Villa will go lower down as they don't have enough depth, along with Fulham. Sunderland will do well but won't be able to convince any world breakers that it is a good place to live and will have to accept the top 7's leftovers for this season at least. West Ham will look good but Zola doesn't have the money or time yet to mold a team that can compete with the top ten teams in the league. Wigan will be a normal mid table team.

And the rest will struggle with a relegation battle. I honestly think the bottom eight will all be possibilities to be relegated but a few teams will spring surprises and stay up. Burnley being one of them. Coyle will prove his worth and just keep them up. Hull will easily be the league's whipping boy this season. And Portsmouth will be the 'big' team who go down this season unless the new owner suddenly comes up with a great deal of cash to help bring in some non championship level players. I rounded out the bottom three with Wolves, who although in some ways look like the strongest of the three coming up, will struggle the most. The other managers will play with a bit of style and grit, Wolves will keep it close but will end up playing more like Sheffield United did a few seasons ago, which will lead to barely getting relegated, possibly on the final day.

I must say that this season is going to be the closest point wise in the top five and the bottom eight that any season has had. The top five are much closer than they look and anyone could spring a surprise, especially with the transfer window still open or the January transfer window. The bottom eight will also be very close (with the exception of Hull who will just sink to the bottom like a piece of granite) and I think a few teams will look like inevitable Championship material half way through the season to then save themselves and come out of it, while the opposite will happen as well (namely Portsmouth and Blackburn who will start ok and then slowly sink closer to the bottom three, with Portsmouth finally giving in like Newcastle did this season).

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